South Florida Housing Market: Prices and Forecast 2025-2026

The South Florida housing market is a captivating mix of luxury and accessibility, showing strong resilience and continued appeal. While mortgage rates present a hurdle, demand for South Florida homes remains robust, particularly in the ultra-luxury segment, and affordable condo prices are holding steady, signaling a dynamic market for the foreseeable future.

I’ve been watching the South Florida real estate scene for quite some time now, and let me tell you, it’s always fascinating. July 2025 data from the MIAMI Association of Realtors and the MIAMI Southeast Florida Multiple Listing Service painted a really clear picture. It’s not all doom and gloom with those higher interest rates; in fact, some parts of the market are absolutely booming. It feels like South Florida is definitely still the place to be for a lot of people, whether they’re looking for a second home on the beach or their first starter condo.

South Florida Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

The Reign of Ultra-Luxury and the Appeal of Miami

Let’s talk about the big spenders first. South Florida is on track to have the second-highest number of home sales of $10 million and up for a calendar year. We’re talking about 426 ultra-luxury sales projected by the end of 2025, which is almost as many as the record-breaking 444 sales during the crazy pandemic buying spree in 2021. That’s not a small number! Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties are the hotspots for these high-value transactions, accounting for 262 such sales already in 2025.

Why is Miami, in particular, drawing in so many high-net-worth individuals? It’s a combination of things, as MIAMI Chairman of the Board Eddie Blanco pointed out. It’s more than just the year-round sunshine (though that’s a big plus!). It’s about the business-friendly environment, the lack of state income tax, the booming FinTech scene, and honestly, real estate that still offers more bang for your millions compared to other major global cities. When you look at the numbers, $1 million gets you significantly more prime property here than in places like Monaco, New York, or London. That value proposition is hard to ignore for people with serious capital.

The Soaring Demand for High-End Single-Family Homes

What’s really turning heads is the surge in sales for single-family homes priced over $3,000 per square foot. In Miami-Dade alone, there were 28 such sales from January to July 2025, a massive 115% jump from the same period in 2024. To put that in perspective, before the pandemic in 2019, there were zero sales in this ultra-luxury per-square-foot bracket. This shows a real shift and an ever-increasing demand for the finest properties.

The Condo Market: Holding Steady and Welcoming First-Timers

Now, let’s not forget the everyday buyer. The median price for affordable 30-year Miami-Dade condo units has stayed remarkably even. In July 2025, it was around $294,000, just a tiny bit down from $298,500 in July 2024. This stability is key, especially for first-time homebuyers.

I think a big reason for this stability, and for increasing buyer confidence, comes down to new state condo regulations that took effect in January 2025. These rules require inspections and adequate reserves for repairs in older buildings. This is a game-changer. Buildings that might have struggled with financing before because they didn’t have enough put aside for maintenance will now be more financeable. For buyers, this means more opportunities and more secure investments in condo living. It’s a move towards making the condo market stronger and safer in the long run.

Navigating the Market: Inventory and Interest Rates

It’s no secret that elevated mortgage rates are a factor. We’re seeing a 16% year-over-year decline in total sales in Miami for July 2025, with 1,782 sales compared to 2,122 the previous year. This is partly due to those higher rates and a bit of a shortage in inventory for certain price points. The same story plays out across Broward and Palm Beach counties, with total sales declining year-over-year by 7.1% and 4.8% respectively.

However, it’s not all bad news on the inventory front. Across South Florida, total active listings have actually increased by about 33.5% year-over-year in July 2025. This might sound contradictory to inventory shortages, but it means more homes are coming onto the market, giving buyers more choices. For single-family homes, inventory saw a significant 38.89% jump in Miami-Dade. Condo inventory is also up, though still below pre-pandemic levels.

What does this increased inventory mean for buyers? Well, according to MIAMI REALTORS® Chief Economist Gay Cororaton, we’ll likely see a buyer’s market through mid-2026. This means buyers have a better chance to negotiate for better prices. As mortgage rates potentially head towards the low 6% range later in 2026, competition could heat up again. So, if you’re looking to buy, now might be a prime time to get in before that potential surge.

The Power of Cash Buyers and International Influence

One recurring theme across South Florida is the significant presence of cash buyers. In Miami, 37.1% of sales were cash transactions in July 2025, higher than the national average of 31%. Broward saw 36.8% cash sales, and Palm Beach County had 44.8%. This isn’t surprising. South Florida is a major hub for international buyers, many of whom prefer to purchase with cash. It also attracts buyers from more expensive U.S. markets who can leverage their existing equity. Cash buyers are less affected by interest rate fluctuations, which helps maintain demand even with higher mortgage costs.

And speaking of international buyers, they play a huge role, especially in new construction. A recent MIAMI REALTORS® report found that international buyers accounted for 49% of new construction, pre-construction, and condo conversion sales over an 18-month period ending June 2025. This international interest is a huge driver for the region’s development and housing market.

South Florida Home Equity: A Wealth-Building Machine

Beyond the immediate sales numbers, it’s crucial to look at the long-term wealth-building potential. My experience tells me that people often underestimate the power of real estate appreciation, especially in markets like South Florida. The data backs this up: home equity gains on a Miami property purchased in late 2009 and sold in late 2024 were nearly double the national average. For a single-family home, that’s over $555,900 compared to the U.S. average of $306,600. For condos, it’s $342,600 versus the national average of $252,000. This consistent appreciation contributes significantly to homeowners’ net worth, which is projected to be much higher than that of renters in 2025.

Key Trends and Forecasts for 2025-2026

Looking ahead, here’s what I see shaping the South Florida housing market:

• Continued Strength in Ultra-Luxury: The demand from high-net-worth individuals isn’t going anywhere. Expect the ultra-luxury segment to remain very active, setting records and attracting global attention. The unique lifestyle and investment opportunities here are irreplaceable for many.
• Affordable Condos Remain Accessible: Despite overall sales dips, the stability in affordable condo prices is a positive signal. The new regulations should further bolster confidence in this segment, making it a viable entry point for new homeowners.
• Buyer’s Market Through Mid-2026: With higher interest rates persisting, buyers will likely have the upper hand for a while. This presents a good opportunity for those who can secure financing to find good deals.
• Interest Rate Sensitivity: The market will remain sensitive to mortgage rate movements. A sustained drop into the low 6% range by late 2026 could reignite significant buyer competition.
• International Buyer Influence: The ongoing influx of international buyers, particularly in new developments, will continue to be a key factor in demand and pricing, especially for condos and luxury properties.
• Florida’s “Live Local Act”: This initiative aims to boost affordable housing. By incentivizing developers to include more affordable units, it could help address some of the supply challenges in the lower price brackets. This is a smart move to ensure the region remains accessible.

Broader Market Dynamics

• Miami-Dade: Experienced a 14.6% year-over-year decline in single-family home sales but saw $1M+ condo sales stay even. Condo sales overall were down 17.3%, impacted by rates and lack of FHA loan approvals for many buildings.
• Broward County: Saw a 79% surge in $1M+ condo sales, though overall condo sales decreased 7.51%. Single-family home sales were down 6.72%.
• Palm Beach County: Showed resilience with a 1% increase in single-family home sales, while condo sales declined 12.4%.
• Martin County: Experienced a 3% increase in $1M+ single-family home sales, but overall single-family home sales decreased 3.4%. Condo sales saw an 8.9% decline.

It’s also worth noting that distressed sales (like foreclosures and short sales) remain at historically low levels across South Florida, with percentages well below 2%. This is a strong indicator of a healthy market, unlike the conditions seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

What About the Future Forecast?

Forecasting any market, especially over a two-year period, is tricky business. However, based on the current trajectory and the underlying strengths of the South Florida market, here’s my take:

For 2025, we can expect a continuation of the trends we’ve seen in the first half of the year: continued strength in the luxury sector, a buyer-leaning market due to higher mortgage rates, but steady demand for more affordable options. I anticipate a slight softening in overall sales volume compared to the peak years, but with prices remaining relatively stable or seeing modest growth, a testament to the region’s enduring appeal. The increased inventory will be a welcome change for many looking to buy.

As we move into 2026, there’s a strong possibility of a shift. If mortgage rates begin to dip from their current highs towards the mid-6% range, we could see a significant uptick in buyer demand. This could turn the buyer’s market into a more balanced one, or even a seller’s market in many popular areas. The growth in affordable housing initiatives might start to show more tangible results, bringing more options to the entry-level market. The ultra-luxury market will undoubtedly remain strong, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see it approach or even break previous records if economic conditions support it.

The key takeaway for anyone interested in the South Florida housing market, whether buying, selling, or investing, is to stay informed and adaptable. It’s a market with many layers, and understanding these nuances – from the global appeal of luxury estates to the crucial role of condo regulations and interest rate fluctuations – is key to making smart decisions.